Mitt Romney's vice president – which candidates are in the frame?

With Mitt Romney close to making a final decision on his vice president running mate – with Romney saying "I have an idea in mind" – speculation focuses on the first critical decision of the 2012 election campaign: will it be Marco Rubio or Tim Pawlenty? Kelly Ayotte or Rob Portman? Hovering over it all like a wasp at a picnic is a reminder that vice presidential picks can come with a sting: Sarah Palin, the running mate in 2008 who became more than a nuisance to John McCain's campaign. Will the desire to avoid a Palinesque meltdown of an untested candidate cause Romney to make a safe choice in his own technocratic image, such as Pawlenty or Bobby Jindal? Or will Romney feel the need to balance his staid persona with a more gregarious character such as Chris Christie or Rubio? Alternatively, Romney could fill blanks in his own resume by choosing Condoleezza Rice for her foreign policy expertise, or Portman for his background in trade and budgets. Here are the leading – and some not-so-leading – candidates to be Mitt Romney's vice presidential candidate and running mate, come the Republican National Convention in Tampa. "Intrade chances" listed below taken from Intrade's predictions market based on bets by participants. The figures were correct at time of writing. Latest figures can be found here . Kelly Ayotte Born: 27 June 1968 Place of birth: Nashua, New Hampshire Married, two children Career : Lawyer, 1994-1998; New Hampshire attorney general's office, 1998-2003; New Hampshire deputy attorney general, 2003-2004; New Hampshire attorney general, 2004-09; US Senator, 2011-present. Pros : Relatively young at 44 and articulate, the former New Hampshire attorney general could boost Mitt Romney's appeal to moderate independent female voters. Ayotte has been a prominent and aggressive surrogate for Romney on the campaign trail, and her background as a prosecutor has given her experience of high profile public advocacy, having argued before the supreme court. Cons : Only elected to the US Senate in 2010, Ayotte's exposure on the national stage is relatively slim, while New Hampshire politics is hardly a real preparation for a pressure-cooker presidential campaign. Her brief political career raises the specter of Sarah Palin as a warning of an unprepared candidate thrust into the limelight. Intrade chances: 2.3% Chris Christie Born: 6 September 1962 Place of birth: Newark, New Jersey Married, four children Career : Local councillor, 1994-98; Lobbyist 1998-2000; US Attorney for the district of New Jersey, 2002-08; Governor of New Jersey, 2009-present Pros : A huge favourite among the Republican party base for his robust battles with public sector unions and cost cutting in New Jersey, Christie also has a crime-fighting background as a US district attorney. A pugnacious debater, Christie would be an effective attack dog for the Romney campaign. His down-to-earth manner would be an antidote to the more wooden Romney. Christie was an early high-profile backer of Romney for the presidential nomination and a regular campaigner on his behalf. Cons : Another relatively moderate east coast governor, Christie's political profile is similar to Romney's. With just two years as New Jersey governor his accomplishments are still thin, in contrast to his girth, which is substantial. May be too much of a loose cannon for the tight-lipped Romney team, although Christie is said to be aggressively courting the nomination. Intrade chances: 2.8% Mary Fallin Born: 9 December 1954 Place of birth: Warrensburg, Missouri Married, two children Career : Member, Oklahoma House of Representatives, 1990-95; Lieutenant Governor of Oklahoma, 1995-2007; Member of the US House of Representatives, 2007-11; Governor of Oklahoma, 2011-present Pros : Her record as a tax-cutting governor from a state enjoying rapid economic and employment growth, Fallin could provide Romney with balance on the ticket with Frontier Strip and southern roots – and a woman as well. Cons : Her low profile in a low profile state makes her an unfashionable choice, and a messy divorce from her first husband might not fit Romney's wholesome image. Intrade chances: n/a Bobby Jindal Born: 10 June 1971 Place of birth: Baton Rouge, Louisiana Married, three children Career : Secretary of the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals, 1996-98; President of the University of Louisiana System, 1999-2001; Assistant secretary of Department of Health and Human Services, 2001-03; Member of the US House of Representatives, 2005-08; Governor of Louisiana, 2008-present Pros : A Rhodes Scholar and former management consultant at McKinsey, Bobby Jindal is a technocratic version of Romney, with an accomplished background in public service for a 41-year-old. Of south Asian descent – his parents emigrated from India – Jindal offers Romney an unusual package of ethnic diversity and meritocratic accomplishment. Popular with conservatives despite his sometimes moderate views, Jindal is another potential future presidential candidate. Cons : Jindal probably did more damage to his national political career with one speech than some politicians manage in a career, through his unhappy response to President's State of the Union address in 2009, which was widely panned. His boyish looks and flat Louisiana cadence are untelegenic, while his earnest public speaking can sound more like a professorial lecture. Intrade chances: 6.7% Susana Martinez Born: 14 July 1959 Place of birth: El Paso, Texas Married, one child Career : Assistant District attorney, Southern New Mexico, 1986-92; District attorney, Southern New Mexico, 1997-2011; Governor of New Mexico, 2011-present Pros : As the first Hispanic woman governor in US history, Martinez's advantages speak for themselves with two demographic groups that the Republicans need help winning over. As a district attorney she fought high profile child abuse and child murder cases. For bipartisan appeal, Martinez ran as a Democrat until 1995, when she switched parties. Cons : As with Kelly Ayotte, the specter of Sarah Palin hangs over a relatively unknown governor. More importantly, Martinez has repeatedly denied any interest in serving as vice president, citing the needs of her developmentally disabled sister and father with Alzheimer's disease, as well as her commitment to serve a full term as New Mexico governor. Intrade chances: 1% Bob McDonnell Born: 15 June 1954 Place of birth: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Married, five children Career : US Army, 1976-81; Member of Virginia House of Delegates, 1993-2006; Attorney General of Virginia, 2006-09; Governor of Virginia, 2010-present. Pros : TV news anchor handsome and a former lieutenant-colonel in the US Army, McDonnell would look the part. His daughter Jeanine served with the US Army in Iraq. McDonnell is popular with conservatives for his actions as governor, including his efforts to restrict abortion rights and loosen gun carrying regulations. Virginia is a swing state that Republicans are eager to retake in 2012. Cons : McDonnell's active military service was as a medical supply officer posted to Germany and the US. His advocacy of anti-abortion positions, including requiring a vaginal ultrasound examination before an abortion, is unlikely to improve Romney's support among women. An underwhelming speaker, McDonnell mirrors Romney's weaknesses as a campaigner. Intrade chances: 2.7% Tim Pawlenty Born: 27 November 1960 Place of birth: St Paul, Minnesota Married, two children Career : Lawyer, software company executive. Minnesota House of Representatives, 1992-2002, House majority leader 1999-2002. Governor of Minnesota, 2003-11. Pros : A candidate for the 2012 GOP nomination himself, Pawlenty dropped out before voting started and endorsed Romney, making him an early high-profile supporter. Solid and reliable, Pawlenty is better liked by the Republican grassroots. Similar in mold to Romney as a technocratic Republican governing a largely Democratic state, a Romney-Pawlenty ticket would be close to the Clinton-Gore ticket in 1992. Cons : Like Romney, Pawlenty is hardly an inspiring speaker or burdened by excess charisma. His name recognition is low outside of Republican circles, and he failed to make much impact during his abortive presidential run. A Romney-Pawlenty ticket is unlikely to fire up the GOP's grassroots. Intrade chances: 17.6% Rob Portman Born: 19 December 1955 Place of birth: Cincinnati, Ohio Married, three children Career : White House lawyer, 1989-91; Member of the US House of Representatives, 1993-2005; US Trade Representative 2005-06; Director of the Office of Management and Budget 2006-07; US Senator, 2011-present Pros : A budget policy wonk, Portman could reinforce Romney's determination to make federal spending an issue. Personable and relatively moderate, Portman fits close to Romney's mold, with a family background in business. Portman campaigned for Romney in Ohio's Republican primary, with Ohio another important swing state in 2012. A favourite of many GOP insiders. Cons : Low profile and a safe rather than sexy choice, Portman brings little glamour to a ticket that could do with some. His previous post as OMB director under George Bush could be a minus, given the Bush administration's dismal fiscal record. Intrade chances: 32% Condoleezza Rice Born: 14 November 1954 Place of birth: Birmingham, Alabama Single Career : Provost of Stanford University, 1993-99; National Security Advisor 2001-05; US Secretary of State 2005-09; Professor, Stanford University 2009-present Pros : Her long list of foreign policy credentials would supply an important facet that Romney sorely lacks. As a senior member of the Bush administration she would also help bring on board a section of the GOP that has been sceptical of Romney. And as an African-American woman, Rice would instantly balance Romney's ticket. Cons : Memories of the Bush administration, particularly Iraq, may not endear her to swing voters and offer an easy line of attack from the Obama campaign. Her past statements on abortion suggest she is mildly pro-choice, which will be unpopular with sections of the GOP base. Despite her years in the White House, Rice has never held elected office, making her an inexperienced campaigner. Intrade chances: 4.1% Marco Rubio Born: 28 May 1971 Place of birth: Miami, Florida Married, four children Career : West Miami City Commission 1998-2000; Member of the Florida House of Representatives 2000-08; US Senator 2011-present Pros : The son of Cuban immigrants, Rubio would give substance to Republican outreach to Hispanic voters. A native of Florida, a key swing state in 2012, Rubio is also beloved by the Tea Party, which helped him defeat moderate Republican Charlie Crist in Florida's 2010 Senate primary. Handsome and articulate. Cons : Young, aged 40, with little experience outside of government and relatively untested on the national stage, having been a US senator for little over a year, Rubio may also be hurt by "Palin syndrome". His overt support for immigration reform may not endear him to the GOP base. Intrade chances: 9.2% Paul Ryan Born: 29 January 1970 Place of birth: Janesville, Wisconsin Married, three children Career : Congressional aide and speechwriter, 1990-98; Member of the US House of Representatives, 1999-present. Chairman of the House Budget committee, 2011-present. Pros : A fresh-faced budgetary wonk, Ryan was catapulted into GOP stardom with his 2011 authorship of budget-slashing programme The Path to Prosperity, often called the Ryan Plan, the Republican response to the Obama administration's budget proposals. Since then Ryan has been the party's face of spending cuts, endearing him to fiscal hawks and Tea Party supporters. Cons : Ryan adds little to a Romney ticket other than a commitment to budget cuts that scares sections of the electorate, especially those affected by his proposals to radically transform Medicare. Despite his deficit-reducing rhetoric, Ryan voted for budget-busting measures including the Troubled Asset Relief Program, the government support for GM and Chrysler, and the costly Medicare Part D expansion. His entire career has been spent around government in Washington DC, which cuts against Romney's outsider-business pitch. Intrade chances: 4.1% Scott Walker Born: 2 November 1967 Place of birth: Colorado Springs, Colorado Married, two children Career : Member of Wisconsin state assembly, 1993-2002; Milwaukee County Executive, 2002-2010; Governor of Wisconsin, 2011-present Pros : If one VP choice could electrify the GOP base for Romney it would be this: the hugely controversial Walker, who successfully fought a high-profile recall election in Wisconsin after his combination of tax cuts for businesses, assaults on pensions, budget cuts and public sector union busting. All of which has made him a hero in Republican circles and a future presidential contender. Cons : Electrifying the Republican base would also jolt the Democratic base into life, and could transform the election into the sort of bitter ideological fights seen around the State Capitol in Madison last year. That is at odds with Romney's "safe pair of hands" image. Intrade chances: 0.2%