David Cameron could damage public trust in crime figures, says statistician

Whitehall's statistical watchdog has upbraided David Cameron over claims at prime minister's question time that violent crime and gun crime had "nearly doubled" under Labour. Sir Michael Scholar, the chair of the UK Statistics Authority, said the prime minister's accusation was based on an "impossible" comparison of recorded crime data whose use was "likely to damage public trust" in the crime figures. Scholar, in a letter to Alan Johnson, the shadow home secretary, said that his authority's view remained that the annual British Crime Survey, which is to be published tomorrow, "provides a more reliable measure of the national trend in violent crime. The evidence from the BCS is that there has not been an increase in respondents' experience of violent crime between the late 1990s and 2008/09." Downing Street refused to accept Sir Michael's verdict, insisting that the way crime measures were compiled allowed only a "partial or confused" picture to be presented and was under review. "There has been a longstanding debate about crime statistics. Current crime measures present either a partial or confused picture about the level of offending," said a Downing Street spokesman. "That's why the home secretary is reviewing how crime statistics should be collected and published in the future." But the Statistics Authority rejected this, saying the review of the methods used to compile the crime survey did not call into question the statistics themselves. "The authority does not wish to be drawn into the political debate, and cannot assume the role of a referee on each occasion that an official statistic is misquoted or misinterpreted," said Scholar. "But I hope that those who comment in parliament and elsewhere on trends in violent crime will take into account the points made in this letter." His ruling followed a complaint from Johnson that Cameron's claim that violent crime had nearly doubled since 1997 – made at last week's prime minister's questions – was seriously misleading to the public. Johnson said the credibility of the crime survey was at stake and said it was wrong for the government to cast doubt on its veracity. He called on Cameron to apologise. "The prime minister has a duty not to mislead the public or the house. He should apologise for doing so and accept the truth that violent crime reduced substantially under Labour." The Statistics Authority said it was not possible to compare police recorded statistics on violent crime between the late 1990s and 2008-09 without qualification because of major changes in the recording rules. The crime survey shows that violent crime has fallen by 41% since 1997.