Oscar nominations 2012 reveal quite the Academy love-in

What an extraordinarily masturbatory list of nominations: even by the Academy Awards' standards, this is quite a display of self-love on the part of the movie world. Hugo – which received more nominations than any other film – The Artist and My Week with Marilyn are all movies about not just movies but the filmmakers' love of movies. Terrence Malick's The Tree of Life, with its endless cutaway shots of grass … trees … sky could also be described as Malick's most ostentatiously cinematic of films, taking The Thin Red Line's languorous cinematography up – or down, really – a whole new notch. Although, to steal an observation from a friend of mine, it felt more like flicking through the file photos on a mobile phone than exploring the dimensions of cinema. It's hard to know what on earth to make of the best film nominations for War Horse and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, other than that the Academy will laud movie adaptations that even manage to ruin audiences' memories of the original source material. While David Furnish seemed astonished last week at Madonna's win at the Golden Globes, complaining that it had "nothing to do with merit", most other people have long ago experienced the epiphany that award ceremonies, particularly movie award ceremonies, have a lot more to do with log rolling than quality control. So, clearly, War Horse's frankly laughable nomination is unlikely to have transpired were the name "Steven Spielberg" not below the credits. Similarly, it is a safe assumption that Max von Sydow's best supporting actor nomination has more to do with von Sydow's body of work than his performance in that wholly forgettable film. Or maybe the academy got so carried away in its nominations for the near silent film The Artist that they thought von Sydow was in that film, too, as his performance in Extremely Loud is wordless. But enough of the whining in general. Let's go through the main categories and whine in particular. Best film Will win: The Artist Should win: The Artist Should not have been nominated: The Help, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, War Horse Should have been nominated: Senna I'm sticking my neck out a bit here and opting for The Artist winning over The Descendants and Hugo which are, really, the only other options. I think (hope) The Artist will squeak it, thanks to the sterling work on the part of The Artist's cast and crew (particularly the dog, Uggie) at charming the world at the Golden Globes. Extremely Loud and War Horse we've already discussed, and as for The Help, aka Driving Miss Daisy 2, let's just say that there are few things Hollywood in the 21st century loves more than patronising black people like it was 1943. Clearly Senna couldn't have been nominated in this category, but seeing as it was left out of the best documentary list due to arcane and foolish rules, I'm sticking it in here. Any movie that can make me (momentarily) fascinated by car racing is clearly a pretty incredible movie, deserving of awards in all categories. Best actor in a leading role Will win: George Clooney Should win: Jean Dujardin or Brad Pitt Should not have been nominated: No one. They're all, you know, fine. Should have been nominated: Owen Wilson Of all films for the world's Clooney-love to flower into a golden statuette, it looks like it will be The Descendants. I wouldn't say that this is Clooney's worst film – come on, the man was in Batman & Robin – but it's certainly one of his more pointless. The appeal of this film lies entirely in Clooney's cachet and Alexander Payne's reputation, both of whom pretty much phoned this movie in. His best mate Brad Pitt, on the other hand, gives a very good performance in Moneyball, although Pitt, unlike Clooney, does not seem to have crossed over in the Academy's mind yet from Pretty Boy to Respected Actorrrrrrrr. Jean Dujardin's gorgeous performance in The Artist shapes the entire film and it is utterly impossible to imagine that movie without him. The academy never pays much attention to comedies unless they are made by Woody Allen. But Owen Wilson deserves far more credit than he has been given for his performance in Midnight in Paris. Many an actor has stumbled in the "Woody-esque" role in Allen's later films – Kenneth Branagh in Celebrity? Hello? – but Wilson carried it off lightly, neither crumpling under the weight of Allen's well-honed persona, nor losing his own individuality. Best actress in a leading role Will win: Meryl Streep, God save us all Should win: Michelle Williams Should not have been nominated: Glenn Close Should have been nominated: Kristen Wiig and Charlize Theron For all the excitement Bridesmaids provoked with talk of how Hollywood is getting better for women, the truth is there weren't that many great parts for the ladies this year. There were parts, yes – The Iron Lady, The Help – but not good ones. Meryl Streep's impersonation of Margaret Thatcher is a perfect case in point, as is most of The Help. Michelle Williams did a nice job as Marilyn Monroe, but the most interesting depictions of women this year were in comedies, which means they were always unlikely to be nominated. Kristen Wiig as the insecure Annie in Bridesmaids and Charlize Theron's impressive take on the monstrously selfish Mavis in Young Adult both showed women as neither sluts not saints, bitches or babes, but as flawed and funny people. At least Wiig got an Original Screenplay nod. I suppose some people will see something nefarious and wrong about Tilda Swinton's absence from the nominees for We Need to Talk About Kevin, but I could never bring myself to see that film – the book was quite enough, thanks awfully – so I can't comment. Best actor in a supporting role Will win: Christopher Plummer, without a doubt Should win: Ditto Should not have been nominated: None, they're all fine Should have been nominated: Albert Brooks, Colin Firth, Uggie the dog The dullest and most predictable category, really: if Christopher Plummer doesn't bagsy this one, I'll sing Edelweiss backwards, standing on my head. The real story here is the omission of Albert Brooks for Drive as he has been highly vocal in his hope of being nominated, and, really, he should have been. As comedian John Fugelsang tweeted , "Albert Brooks just got snubbed so bad it's like a scene from an Albert Brooks movie." Whatever your thoughts about Drive – fascinating and original versus pretentious and empty – Brook's chilling performance as the sadistic gangster was a brilliant piece of anti-typecasting. Ultimately, though, it doesn't really matter as even if Brooks had been nominated, Plummer still would have won. Colin Firth was great in Tinker, Tailor, and I'd have preferred to see him nominated than Gary Oldman, but I guess two Oscars in a row would have looked a bit greedy. Personally, I'm most upset about the omission of Uggie the dog from The Artist but at least he'll get to trot down the red carpet. Best actress in a supporting role Will win: Octavia Spencer Should win: Melissa McCarthy Should not have been nominated: None, they're all fine Should have been nominated: Maybe Jessica Chastain for The Tree of Life? Octavia Spencer pretty much has this one sewn up but it would be ten tonnes of awesome if Melissa McCarthy won this instead. She is just super in Bridesmaids and it would break the Academy's terrible record in not just ignoring comedies that aren't by Woody Allen, but ignoring funny women. McCarthy is funny-funny in this and it would be an award for this specific performance as opposed to her body of work (see Meryl Streep, Glenn Close, etc etc.) Anyway, she won't win so I don't know why I'm torturing myself even talking about it. Next! Best director Will win: Martin Scorsese Should win: Michel Hazanavicius Should not be nominated: Terrence Malick Should have been nominated: Paul Feig As with the best picture award, this really could go any of three ways: to The Artist, The Descendants or Hugo. I reckon Scorsese will get it, just out of sentiment, but I wouldn't be surprised if it went to Payne, either. Some were thinking that Lynne Ramsay might get a mention for We Need to Talk About Kevin although, as I said earlier, I can't really add my tuppence on that film. I had my fingers quietly crossed for Paul Feig, the director of Bridesmaids, who gave that film a lovely light touch, one not generally associated with movies from the Apatow stable. It wasn't hopeful, mind, but it would have been nice.