Taliban insurgency alive and well, warns British major general

A former senior British military commander in Afghanistan has described the Taliban-led insurgency as "resilient and alive and well" and warned that the outcome of current critical operations there will be uncertain until next summer. Major General Nick Carter, who has just returned to the UK after a year commanding international forces in Kandahar, a Taliban stronghold, said US-led counter-insurgency operations were getting more sophisticated. However, he painted a picture of the security situation in southern Afghanistan far removed from the "misleadingly optimistic" reports by the military, which were criticised this week by Britain's former special envoy to the country, Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles . Cowper-Coles told the Commons foreign affairs committee yesterday: "I think it is a question of politicians and civilian officials having the confidence to question some of the very optimistic military advice they get." He was not in any way blaming the military, he added. Carter, who described Cowper-Coles' concerns as "very reasonable", said today: "We do understand now what he [Cowper-Coles] is driving at – give it time." In a hard-headed account of the situation in southern Afghanistan, Carter said there were signs of what he called "green shoots". He said 80% of the improvised explosive devices (IEDs) planted in Kandahar had been found and handed in to police. British Royal Engineers with armoured vehicles and anti-mine equipment had cleared roads, while the price of IED components, such as ammonium nitrate, had increased tenfold. Special forces had targeted "mid and low-level" Taliban leaders, and there was "a much better understanding" of the Taliban-led insurgency which was complicated by tribal rivalries, Carter said. "People are fighting with the Taliban rather than for the Taliban." The Taliban was attractive because the Afghan government still was not credible or "straight enough" and still unable to establish the rule of law, he said. Carter warned: "The insurgency is resilient, and alive and well." He continued: "There is no doubt the Quetta Shura [the Taliban leadership under Mullah Omar based in southern Pakistan] has a strategy. It is very clever; it is very resilient." It had what Carter called "shadow government positions right across the south [of Afghanistan]". Though he said the Afghan national army and police – the key to a UK and US exit strategy – were improving, only 5% of the army was recruited from southern Pashtuns, the dominant group in Kandahar province and neighbouring Helmand, where more than 9,000 British troops are still deployed. Carter said there were signs of progress, and that it was still worth investing in the country. However, he added: "It's very early days." The test of whether the counterinsurgency strategy was succeeding would not be known until June or July next year, he said. The British and US governments, and their military commanders, are playing down the significance of President Barack Obama's promised end-of-year "review" of Afghan strategy. They are also suggesting that any reduction in the number of British or American troops next summer would be insignificant. Both governments say their forces will end combat operations there by 2015. In the Commons yesterday, Tory backbencher John Baron, a former captain in the Royal Regiment of Fusiliers, called for a "more realistic" assessment of conditions in Afghanistan during questions to the deputy prime minister. Nick Clegg replied that the government had brought a "strong element of realism" and recognised that the military effort needed to be backed by a political strategy. It was separately reported today that Sir Mark Stanhope, head of the navy, said this week he was "very uncomfortable" with the government's decision to axe the fleet of Nimrod reconnaissance and maritime surveillance aircraft. The MoD said yesterday: "We will continue to undertake joint maritime patrol activities with our allies, and will utilise a range of other military assets to ensure the integrity of UK waters." The Falkland Islands government said today it was "satisfied" that defence cuts were not leaving it vulnerable to an invasion by Argentina. A group of former Royal Navy chiefs cited the risk to the South Atlantic islands in a public callto the coalition not to scrap the aircraft carrier Ark Royal and the fleet of Harrier jets.