The Derby: Carlton House can spark a right royal knees-up at Epsom

Real-life Derek Trotters should head down to Epsom on Saturday with a job lot of Union Jack flags and bunting, as they can rightfully expect a roaring trade when Carlton House wins the Investec Derby for the Queen. Racing is already bogged down enough in politics without continuing old arguments about wealth going to wealth, but it is not as if Her Majesty is not a dedicated supporter of the sport. She has failed to attend the Derby less than half a dozen times since her coronation in 1953 and has won five Classics as an owner. But not since 1909 has the most famous Flat race in the world been won by the reigning monarch, when Minoru, leased by King Edward VII to race in his colours, followed up his popular victory in the 2000 Guineas. Royal fervour among the public may not be quite the same as when Dunfermline won the Oaks in the week of the Queen's Silver Jubilee in 1977, but on the back of the successful recent Royal wedding, Carlton House ought to be the subject of plenty of publicity in the final build-up to the race. With some of the biggest high street bookmakers taking an aggressive stance on pricing big races, it would not be a surprise to see some generous offers flying around early on Saturday morning, so if you are not planning to try to break the bank it might be better to wait until then before placing your bets. However, those looking to oppose Carlton House seem to be clutching at straws. He won the Derby's best trial with authority, there is considerably more encouragement from his pedigree that he will last out over a mile and a half than could be said to be the case for many of his rivals, and he is trained by a master. Entertainingly, one television interviewer last Thursday asked André Fabre whether he considered the second-favourite, Pour Moi, to have "what it takes to win the Derby?" The trainer correctly answered that he did not have the faintest idea. Fabre's lack of success in the race contrasts with Sir Michael Stoute's record. Kris Kin (2003) and North Light (2004), neither of whom can be considered all-time greats, destroyed their rivals at Epsom having come into the race with an identical profile, lightly raced at two before winning their trial. Last year's Derby winner, Workforce, another Stoute success story, was only a slight variation on the same theme, finishing second in the Dante, when the race was all about education. Carlton House, too, made his lack of experience all too apparent at York this month. He played around at the start before entering the stalls and over-exerted himself in the early stages of the race, taking a defiant pull at Ryan Moore's reins for the first two furlongs as the early pace proved insufficiently quick. In the circumstances, it was even more impressive that at the finish he was comfortably on top of Seville, a horse whose market support made it clear that much was expected of him by Ballydoyle. With many of Aidan O'Brien's runners palpably needing their first start of the campaign, some expect Seville to reverse the placings, but it would be unwise to imagine that Carlton House will not find just as much improvement. The French hope Pour Moi should pose the biggest threat to Carlton House, now that his participation has been confirmed. His workout at Epsom on Thursday was far more serious than we had been led to believe we would see, and he ate up the ground under Mickaël Barzalona in the final two furlongs. While the majority of French races are run at a crawl, the prospect of an end-to-end gallop – hopeless outsider Castlemorris King and at least one of the O'Brien runners ought to ensure that is the case – should bring out the very best in Pour Moi, who will be ridden patiently and for a turn of foot. But such tactics are not easy to execute at Epsom, where the contours of the track can throw horses out of tempo just when they need most to be making up ground. By the time he is balanced and making ground, God Save The Queen could already be playing.