Greek election: what could happen

Pro-reform parties win The centre-right "pro-European" New Democracy party emerges as front-runner but there is no outright winner. It forges a "national salvation" government with the socialist Pasok party, which also backs reforms in return for rescue funds from the EU, ECB and IMF. The coalition commits to the conditions of the latest €130bn bailout and terms are eased. Short-term stability could lead to more prevarication by Germany's Angela Merkel in dealing with greater EU fiscal unity. By delaying the crucial decisions, the eurozone staggers towards the next crisis. Likelihood 5 out of 10 Weak pro-Europe government Reform-minded "pro-European" forces win power but by a slight margin. A government is formed, but is constantly undermined by anti-bailout far-left Syriza party which becomes bold as opposition grows on the streets. The government falls in the autumn when called to pass further belt-tightening measures. The EU, ECB and IMF are encouraged by some to turn off the cash tap at Greeks' failure to honour austerity pledges. A possible contagious collapse in confidence across Europe threatens UK with a two-year recession as trade with the continent dries up. Likelihood 8 out of 10 Victory for radicals Anti-austerity forces led by Syriza party emerge as the frontrunner. Syriza forms a government with Pasok and the Democratic Left. Another possible coalition partner is the populist rightwing Independent Greeks party after the orthodox KKE communist party rebuffs its overtures. Greece is on a collision course with foreign lenders as the government puts a brake on the EU-IMF dictated austerity and structural reform programme. Chaos erupts when creditors withhold loans and Greece is forced to declare bankruptcy. If Greece leaves the euro, Germany could be jolted into action and pursue fiscal unity in Europe, smothering any panic among other states. If the Germans don't act, it could lead to an economic armageddon. Likelihood 5 out of 10 Political deadlock Neither New Democracy nor Syriza win enough votes to form a coalition government. After weeks of negotiations, it is announced that fresh elections must be held. The ECB, IMF and EU have no one to negotiate with. A disorderly default is likely as creditors lose patience. Likelihood 2 out of 10